UK vs Europe: comparing the physical threat landscape facing the rail sector

Key takeaways

• UK rail protest activity remains concentrated on station concourses and domestic policy issues such as HS2 and rail reform. In contrast, European activism has increasingly targeted operational infrastructure and freight logistics as a point of economic leverage.

• The Public Order Act 2023 has reshaped UK protest tactics, with disruptive methods such as tunnelling and locking-on giving way to petitions and localised demonstrations since its introduction.

• Cable theft is rising on both sides of the Channel, with Network Rail recording 108 incidents in 2024, a 48 percent increase on the previous year. This has caused 69,275 minutes of delay at a cost of £3.3 million.

• European theft is increasingly organised and disruption-motivated rather than opportunistic. For example, the May 2025 attack on the Madrid to Seville high-speed line affected more than 10,000 passengers and was characterised by Spain's Transport Minister as sabotage.

• Suspected state-linked sabotage has been particularly prominent in Europe in recent years. This has been exemplified by the November 2025 explosion on the Warsaw to Lublin line, a corridor used to move military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

• Major events function as reliable triggers for rail sabotage in Europe, with coordinated arson affecting an estimated 800,000 passengers before the 2024 Paris Olympics and three suspected incidents during the opening weekend of Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics 2026.

• Cross-movement cooperation between European and UK activist groups means tactics proven effective on the continent, including track occupations of the kind seen at Utrecht Centraal, could plausibly be adopted by UK offshoots.

Rail networks sit at the intersection of critical national infrastructure and daily public life, which makes them a persistent target for a range of physical threats. Protest movements use stations as a stage, industrial action disrupts timetables, organised crime targets signalling infrastructure, and in parts of Europe, suspected sabotage has been tied directly to geopolitical tensions. Yet the threat picture differs significantly between the UK and the rest of Europe. This piece sets out both landscapes and compares them directly, drawing on CYJAX's latest rail sector research.

The UK picture

UK rail activity has remained largely domestic in focus, shaped heavily by legislation, and centred on infrastructure crime and localised protest rather than direct interference with operational systems.

• Protest at transport hubs. Rail stations attract protest activity because of their high footfall and status as critical infrastructure, meaning even small demonstrations generate significant attention. Throughout 2025, King's Cross was repeatedly used for pro-Palestine demonstrations, including a rally by Youth Demand in April that blocked traffic on Euston Road, and a large gathering on the second anniversary of the 7 October 2023 attacks. In both cases, National Rail confirmed train services were not significantly affected, though passenger flow and surrounding roads were disrupted. Similar station-based demonstrations occurred at Glasgow Central, Edinburgh Waverley, and Glasgow Queen Street.

• HS2 opposition. Sustained protest activity against the HS2 project has continued since construction began in 2020. The most disruptive tactics, including large-scale tunnelling that reportedly cost around £3.8 million, took place between 2020 and 2022. Since the introduction of the Public Order Act 2023, which expanded police powers to prevent tactics such as locking-on and tunnelling, disruptive anti-HS2 activity has declined in favour of petitions and localised protest.

• Industrial action. The most severe period of national rail strikes occurred between 2022 and 2024. Since a settlement was reached following the 2024 General Election, action has become more limited and operator specific. This includes, weekend strikes on Avanti West Coast, autumn 2025 action on CrossCountry, and strike action on 10 and 11 July 2026 by the Transport Salaried Staffs' Association over rest-day working payments.

• Infrastructure theft. Network Rail figures show 108 cable theft incidents in 2024, which is a 48 percent increase on 2023. This theft caused 69,275 minutes of delay and cost £3.3 million. Media reporting suggests this trend continued through 2025, with over 100 incidents contributing to more than 100,000 minutes of delay and repair costs exceeding £5 million. Network Rail and British Transport Police have responded with expanded CCTV, dedicated security teams, and fibre optic intrusion detection trials.

• Vandalism and sabotage. Large-scale coordinated sabotage remains uncommon in the UK. Notable 2025 incidents included cable severing that disrupted services into Blackpool in July, and a vandalism attack on West Coast Main Line signalling near Wigan in August that disrupted services across the Northwest, Scotland, and London Euston.

The European picture

European countries have experienced more direct interference with operational rail infrastructure, coordinated freight blockades, and suspected sabotage linked to wider geopolitical tensions.

• Freight rail as a protest target. From April 2025, activist group Geef Tegengas began a sustained campaign of blockades against freight lines serving the Port of Rotterdam. The group cited the sector's role in fossil fuel transport and global supply chains as a reason for the campaign. According to Dutch infrastructure manager ProRail, a blockade on 24 April 2025, which coincided with the NATO Summit, left at least 19 freight trains unable to move and cost the sector an estimated €150,000 per hour. Further blockades continued through June 2025 and into 2026.

• Station occupations. In May 2026, Extinction Rebellion activists occupied the tracks at Utrecht Centraal, the Netherlands' busiest station. Activists halted all train traffic for more than two hours in protest against the Dutch government's policy towards Israel.

• Industrial action. Belgium experienced its most strike-affected rail year in over a decade in 2025, with knock-on disruption to Eurostar and ICE services. Further action continued into 2026 over pension reform. Spain saw a planned seven-day strike called off in March 2025 after agreement over the Rodalies network, though February 2026 brought three days of nationwide strikes led by train drivers following a fatal collision. France's four major rail unions called a nationwide strike in June 2026 over pay and working conditions.

• Organised theft and sabotage. Copper cable theft across Spain, France, Germany, and Belgium has increasingly been attributed to organised groups rather than opportunistic thieves. In May 2025, coordinated theft on the Madrid to Seville high-speed line disrupted more than 10,000 passengers and was described by Spain's Transport Minister as an act of sabotage. A similar theft near Lille in June 2025 disrupted Eurostar services.

• State-linked and event-linked sabotage. In November 2025, an explosion damaged the Warsaw to Lublin line in Poland. This route is used to transport military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, with Polish authorities describing it as suspected sabotage. Coordinated arson and cable-cutting disrupted France's TGV network hours before the 2024 Paris Olympics opening ceremony, affecting an estimated 800,000 passengers. Additionally, three suspected acts of sabotage targeted rail infrastructure near Bologna and Pesaro during the opening weekend of the Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics.

UK vs Europe at a glance

What the comparison means for the UK

UK activism has stayed concentrated on domestic issues and transport hubs rather than operational infrastructure, an outcome likely shaped by the Public Order Act 2023's expanded police powers. In contrast, European campaigners have increasingly treated rail as a lever for economic and political pressure because of its role in freight, trade, and military logistics. Cross-movement cooperation between European and UK activist groups has already proven effective in advancing shared campaigns. It is plausible that tactics used at Utrecht Centraalcould be mirrored by UK offshoots, particularly given the continued prominence of the Israel-Palestine conflict as a driver of supply chain-focused activism. The organised nature of recent European cable theft, where locations are selected for maximum disruption rather than scrap value, could similarly influence UK-based criminal groups. While the UK's legislative environment currently limits the most disruptive tactics seen on the continent, this is a threat landscape worth monitoring rather than assuming will remain static.

To read the full analysis, including detailed incident data and forward-looking assessments, download the complete CYJAX rail sector threat report.